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Auda vs BFC Daugavpils — Virsliga 2026

Auda
Auda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
11/11/2023VirsligaVirsliga · Round 36Slokas Stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Auda53%
×Draw24%
BFC Daugavpils23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auda
1.69
BFC Daugavpils
1.01

Auda creates 67% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 112 away

creates per match

Auda
1.52
BFC Daugavpils
0.91

allows per match

Auda
1.10
BFC Daugavpils
1.86

finishing

Auda+0.00on par
BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auda ↓

BFC Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Auda or draw
77%
Auda or BFC Daugavpils
76%
Draw or BFC Daugavpils
47%

Winning margin

Auda wins by 2+
29%
BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Auda 1+ goals
82%
Auda 2+ goals
50%
Auda 3+ goals
24%
BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals
64%
BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals
27%
BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Auda (draw refunded)
70%
BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auda at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 82 matches

BFC Daugavpils away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.86 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auda attack 1.52 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.69

BFC Daugavpils attack 0.91 + Auda defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Auda scores more
53%
level
24%
BFC Daugavpils scores more
23%

Auda at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Auda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auda vs BFC Daugavpils

Auda beat BFC Daugavpils 1-0 in Virsliga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Slokas Stadionā in Jūrmala.