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Atzeneta vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Atzeneta
Atzeneta
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
10/22/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 7Campo De Futbol El Regit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Atzeneta40%
×Draw27%
Villarreal III32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atzeneta
1.29
Villarreal III
1.13

Atzeneta creates 14% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 112 away

creates per match

Atzeneta
1.35
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Atzeneta
0.87
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Atzeneta+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atzeneta ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atzeneta or draw
68%
Atzeneta or Villarreal III
73%
Draw or Villarreal III
60%

Winning margin

Atzeneta wins by 2+
18%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atzeneta 1+ goals
72%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
37%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
14%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
68%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
31%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atzeneta (draw refunded)
55%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atzeneta at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atzeneta attack 1.35 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atzeneta scores more
40%
level
27%
Villarreal III scores more
32%

Atzeneta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atzeneta 6 – 1 Villarreal III

Atzeneta beat Villarreal III 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Campo De Futbol El Regit in Atzeneta d'Albaida.