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Atyrau vs Ordabasy — Cup 2019

Atyrau
Atyrau
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ordabasy
Ordabasy
6/19/2019CupCup · Semi-finalsStadion Munayşı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atyrau31%
×Draw25%
Ordabasy44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrau
1.24
Ordabasy
1.52

Ordabasy creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atyrau
1.60
Ordabasy
1.65

allows per match

Atyrau
1.40
Ordabasy
0.88

finishing

Atyrau+0.00on par
Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrau ↓

Ordabasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atyrau or draw
56%
Atyrau or Ordabasy
75%
Draw or Ordabasy
69%

Winning margin

Atyrau wins by 2+
13%
Ordabasy wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Atyrau 1+ goals
71%
Atyrau 2+ goals
35%
Atyrau 3+ goals
13%
Ordabasy 1+ goals
78%
Ordabasy 2+ goals
45%
Ordabasy 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Atyrau (draw refunded)
42%
Ordabasy (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrau at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrau attack 1.60 + Ordabasy defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ordabasy attack 1.65 + Atyrau defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atyrau scores more
31%
level
25%
Ordabasy scores more
44%

Ordabasy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atyrau vs Ordabasy

Atyrau and Ordabasy drew 0-0 in Cup on June 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Munayşı in Atyrau.