Atyrau 2–1 Kairat Almaty: Result & Stats | Cup

Atyrau

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kairat Almaty

E. Nsungusi 50', 16'

Y. Trufanov 67'

6/7/2023

Cup · Quarter-finalsStadion Munayşı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atyrau35%

×Draw24%

Kairat Almaty41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtyrauExpected goals in this matchKairat Almaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.63

Atyrau

1.48

Kairat Almaty

1.63

Kairat Almaty creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

1.60

creates per match

1.86

1.40

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Atyrau

1.60

Kairat Almaty

1.86

allows per match

Atyrau

1.40

Kairat Almaty

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atyrau+0.00on par

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrau ↓

Kairat Almaty →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Atyrau or draw

59%

Atyrau or Kairat Almaty

76%

Draw or Kairat Almaty

65%

Winning margin

Atyrau wins by 2+

16%

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Atyrau 1+ goals

77%

Atyrau 2+ goals

43%

Atyrau 3+ goals

19%

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

80%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

48%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Atyrau (draw refunded)

46%

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atyrau at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Kairat Almaty away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atyrau attack 1.60 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kairat Almaty attack 1.86 + Atyrau defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atyrau scores more

35%

level

24%

Kairat Almaty scores more

41%

Kairat Almaty at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

E. Nsungusi

22'

Y. Seydakhmet

46'

V. Shvyryov← A. Sadybekov

50'

E. Nsungusi

55'

D. Imeri

56'

L. Kurgin← A. Ulshin

56'

D. Sergeev← S. Keiler

65'

Y. Trufanov← Y. Seydakhmet

67'

Y. Trufanov

70'

A. Adambayev← A. Nabikhanov

78'

N. Efiong

78'

D. Kasabulat

82'

R. Dzumatov← N. Zhagorov

82'

M. Degtyarev← E. Kozlov

86'

L. Kurgin

88'

O. Kerymzhanov

90+3'

J. Paulo

90+4'

O. Omirtayev← E. Nsungusi

Atyrau

Kairat

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Nsungusi

Manager: V. Zhukovskiy

70'▲A. Adambayev←▼A. Nabikhanov

82'▲R. Dzumatov←▼N. Zhagorov

82'▲M. Degtyarev←▼E. Kozlov

90+4'▲O. Omirtayev←▼E. Nsungusi

Atyrau substitutes

AdambayevDzumatovDegtyarevOmirtayevKhatkevichUrdaPangereiNoyokTokhtarov

Manager: K. Keker

46'▲V. Shvyryov←▼A. Sadybekov

56'▲L. Kurgin←▼A. Ulshin

56'▲D. Sergeev←▼S. Keiler

65'▲Y. Trufanov←▼Y. Seydakhmet

Kairat Almaty substitutes

ShvyryovKurginSergeevTrufanovMrynskiyAnarbekovKushkumbaevTkachenkoAskarov

Cup: Atyrau 2–1 Kairat Almaty

Atyrau beat Kairat Almaty 2-1 in Cup on June 7, 2023.

Goals: E. Nsungusi (16', 50'), Y. Trufanov (67').

The match was played at Stadion Munayşı in Atyrau.

Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Atyrau 2–1 Kairat Almaty