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Atyrau vs FK Aksu — Premier League 2019

Atyrau
Atyrau
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
3/5/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stadion Munayşı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Atyrau50%
×Draw26%
FK Aksu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrau
1.50
FK Aksu
0.95

Atyrau creates 58% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 26 away

creates per match

Atyrau
0.97
FK Aksu
0.73

allows per match

Atyrau
1.18
FK Aksu
2.04

finishing

Atyrau+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrau ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atyrau or draw
76%
Atyrau or FK Aksu
74%
Draw or FK Aksu
50%

Winning margin

Atyrau wins by 2+
25%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atyrau 1+ goals
78%
Atyrau 2+ goals
44%
Atyrau 3+ goals
19%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
61%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
25%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atyrau (draw refunded)
68%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrau at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 87 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrau attack 0.97 + FK Aksu defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.50

FK Aksu attack 0.73 + Atyrau defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atyrau scores more
50%
level
26%
FK Aksu scores more
24%

Atyrau at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atyrau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atyrau 0 – 0 FK Aksu

Atyrau and FK Aksu drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Munayşı in Atyrau.