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Atyrá vs Sportivo Ameliano — Division Intermedia 2018

Atyrá
Atyrá
PST
00:00
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
4/26/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 6Estadio San Francisco de Asis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atyrá33%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Ameliano38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrá
1.11
Sportivo Ameliano
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atyrá
1.23
Sportivo Ameliano
1.24

allows per match

Atyrá
1.19
Sportivo Ameliano
1.00

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par
Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw
62%
Atyrá or Sportivo Ameliano
72%
Draw or Sportivo Ameliano
67%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+
13%
Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals
67%
Atyrá 2+ goals
30%
Atyrá 3+ goals
10%
Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
34%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)
47%
Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.24 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atyrá scores more
33%
level
28%
Sportivo Ameliano scores more
38%

Sportivo Ameliano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atyrá vs Sportivo Ameliano — Match Preview

Atyrá face Sportivo Ameliano on April 26, 2020 in this Division Intermedia fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Atyrá host Sportivo Ameliano at Estadio San Francisco de Asis.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.