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Atyrá vs Resistencia — Division Intermedia 2018

Atyrá
Atyrá
PST
22:00
Resistencia
Resistencia
10/3/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 29Estadio San Francisco de Asis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Atyrá38%
×Draw28%
Resistencia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrá
1.24
Resistencia
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 83 away

creates per match

Atyrá
1.23
Resistencia
1.16

allows per match

Atyrá
1.19
Resistencia
1.25

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par
Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

Resistencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw
65%
Atyrá or Resistencia
72%
Draw or Resistencia
62%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+
16%
Resistencia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals
71%
Atyrá 2+ goals
35%
Atyrá 3+ goals
13%
Resistencia 1+ goals
69%
Resistencia 2+ goals
33%
Resistencia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)
52%
Resistencia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Resistencia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + Resistencia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Resistencia attack 1.16 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atyrá scores more
38%
level
28%
Resistencia scores more
35%

Atyrá at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atyrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atyrá host Resistencia

October 3, 2020: Atyrá take on Resistencia in Division Intermedia. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atyrá host Resistencia at Estadio San Francisco de Asis.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.