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ATSV Erlangen vs Weiden — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Weiden
Weiden
B. Ayvaz 81' (pen)
L. Markert 40'
L. Kuschka 31'
P. Gortler 26'
K. Grunauer 63'
9/9/2022Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 11Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ATSV Erlangen48%
×Draw23%
Weiden29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATSV Erlangen
1.79
Weiden
1.34

ATSV Erlangen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.78
Weiden
1.31

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.37
Weiden
1.80

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par
Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Weiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw
71%
ATSV Erlangen or Weiden
77%
Draw or Weiden
52%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
26%
Weiden wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
83%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
53%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
26%
Weiden 1+ goals
74%
Weiden 2+ goals
39%
Weiden 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
62%
Weiden (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Weiden defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Weiden attack 1.31 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more
48%
level
23%
Weiden scores more
29%

ATSV Erlangen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
P. Gortler
31'
L. Kuschka
40'
L. Markert
63'
K. Grunauer
81'
B. AyvazPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: ATSV Erlangen 4–1 Weiden

ATSV Erlangen beat Weiden 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 9, 2022.

Goals: P. Gortler (26'), L. Kuschka (31'), L. Markert (40'), K. Grunauer (63'), B. Ayvaz (81' pen).

The match was played at Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse in Erlangen.