Atromitos vs PAOK — Super League 1 2018
PAOK have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 131+ matches
Atromitos30%PAOK44%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
PAOK creates 26% more chances
Season form · 131 home / 134 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atromitos ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atromitos at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches
PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 134 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atromitos attack 1.21 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.12
PAOK attack 1.72 + Atromitos defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
PAOK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- PAOK win just 57% against the top half (vs 86% against the bottom)
- 36% of PAOK’s goals come after the 75th minute
- Atromitos outscore their xG (2.1 vs 1.6 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesHead-to-head
10 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Atromitos host PAOK on Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the Super League 1 2018/2019 season.
Preview: Atromitos host PAOK
August 29, 2026: Atromitos take on PAOK in Super League 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Atromitos host PAOK at Peristeri Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.