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Atletico Venezuela vs Mineros de Guyana — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
CANC
20:00
Mineros de Guyana
Mineros de Guyana
8/9/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 23Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Atletico Venezuela44%
×Draw26%
Mineros de Guyana30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.44
Mineros de Guyana
1.15

Atletico Venezuela creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 94 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Mineros de Guyana
1.06

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Mineros de Guyana
1.59

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Mineros de Guyana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
70%
Atletico Venezuela or Mineros de Guyana
74%
Draw or Mineros de Guyana
56%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
21%
Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
76%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
42%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
18%
Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals
68%
Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals
32%
Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
59%
Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Mineros de Guyana away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.06 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
44%
level
26%
Mineros de Guyana scores more
30%

Atletico Venezuela at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atletico Venezuela host Mineros de Guyana

August 9, 2020: Atletico Venezuela take on Mineros de Guyana in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atletico Venezuela host Mineros de Guyana at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.