Atletico Tucuman 2–0 Gimnasia L.P.: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gimnasia L.P.

G. Enrique 37' (OG)

M. Estigarribia 29'

7/12/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 24Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Atletico Tucuman46%

×Draw28%

Gimnasia L.P.26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.90

Atletico Tucuman

1.30

Gimnasia L.P.

0.90

Atletico Tucuman creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

1.38

creates per match

0.90

0.89

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.38

Gimnasia L.P.

0.90

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.89

Gimnasia L.P.

1.22

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.09on par

Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

74%

Atletico Tucuman or Gimnasia L.P.

72%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

54%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

21%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

73%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

37%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

14%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

59%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

23%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

64%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.38 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

46%

level

28%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

26%

Atletico Tucuman at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

B. Bianchi

Atletico Tucuman · D

8.2

Match Events

29'

M. Estigarribia↳ B. Bianchi

37'

G. EnriqueOwn goal

46'

R. Castillo← I. Mammini

46'

E. Ramírez← G. Enrique

49'

Nicolás Romero

51'

Mateo Coronel

54'

Alan Lescano

55'

R. Ruíz Rodríguez← M. Coronel

61'

Rodrigo Castillo

61'

L. Mamut← F. Soldano

61'

A. Ramírez← I. Miramón

61'

M. Comba← A. Lescano

75'

Agustín Ramírez

79'

I. Maestro Puch← M. Estigarribia

80'

B. Kociubinski← G. Acosta

84'

Joaquín Pereyra

87'

F. Di Franco← J. Pereyra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoGimnasia

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots13

7Corners7

11Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots13

6On Target2

6Off Target7

1Blocked4

7Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

286Total Passes403

186Accurate Passes306

65%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1