Atlético Tembetary vs SOL DE America

Atlético Tembetary

Preview

13:00

SOL DE America

7/19/2026

Division Intermedia · Round 15

41%

Atlético Tembetary

model favours

41%24%34%

SOL DE America win just 25% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

61%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlético Tembetary41%

×Draw24%

SOL DE America34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético TembetaryExpected goals in this matchSOL DE America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.44

Atlético Tembetary

1.60

SOL DE America

1.44

Atlético Tembetary creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

1.83

creates per match

1.38

1.50

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Atlético Tembetary

1.83

SOL DE America

1.38

allows per match

Atlético Tembetary

1.50

SOL DE America

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Tembetary+0.00on par

SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tembetary ↓

SOL DE America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Atlético Tembetary or draw

66%

Atlético Tembetary or SOL DE America

76%

Draw or SOL DE America

59%

Winning margin

Atlético Tembetary wins by 2+

21%

SOL DE America wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atlético Tembetary 1+ goals

80%

Atlético Tembetary 2+ goals

47%

Atlético Tembetary 3+ goals

22%

SOL DE America 1+ goals

76%

SOL DE America 2+ goals

42%

SOL DE America 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tembetary (draw refunded)

55%

SOL DE America (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tembetary at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tembetary attack 1.83 + SOL DE America defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

SOL DE America attack 1.38 + Atlético Tembetary defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Tembetary scores more

41%

level

24%

SOL DE America scores more

34%

Atlético Tembetary at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Tembetary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Tembetary

WDLDW

America

DDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff