Atletico San Luis 0–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Atletico San Luis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

J. Dinenno 82' (pen)

3/20/2021

Liga MX · Clausura - 12Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Atletico San Luis30%

×Draw26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico San LuisExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.46

Atletico San Luis

1.15

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.46

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.15

creates per match

1.21

1.72

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Atletico San Luis

1.15

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

Atletico San Luis

1.72

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.18scores more

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw

56%

Atletico San Luis or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

74%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

70%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

12%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

68%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

32%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

11%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

77%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

43%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

40%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 6 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.15 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more

30%

level

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

44%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Talavera

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · G

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Felipe Gallegos

9'

Carlos Gutiérrez

24'

G. Moreno← L. Quintana

34'

Gerardo Moreno

45'

Juan IzquierdoGoal cancelled

51'

Dionicio Escalante

54'

F. Waller← G. Torres

67'

Juan IzquierdoGoal cancelled

71'

Damián Batallini

71'

Ángel García← F. Álvarez

72'

Nicolás Ibáñez

75'

F. Gino← J. Castro

81'

Juan Izquierdo

82'

J. DinennoPenalty

84'

L. Passerini← P. Barrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoU.N.A.M.

Overview

45%Possession55%

17Total Shots10

4Corners2

15Fouls19

Shots

17Total Shots10

5On Target2

10Off Target4

2Blocked4

13Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

291Total Passes365

208Accurate Passes271

71%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls19

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1