Atletico San Luis 1–3 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Atletico San Luis

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Santos Laguna

G. Berterame 48'

J. Ávila 89'

B. Lozano 62'

E. Aguirre 52'

5/1/2022

Liga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Atletico San Luis36%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico San LuisExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.67

Atletico San Luis

1.55

Santos Laguna

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.15

creates per match

1.61

1.72

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Atletico San Luis

1.15

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

Atletico San Luis

1.72

Santos Laguna

1.95

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.18scores more

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw

59%

Atletico San Luis or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

64%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

17%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

79%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

46%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

20%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

81%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

50%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

47%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 6 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.15 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.55

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more

36%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

41%

Santos Laguna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Acevedo

Santos Laguna · G

8.0

Match Events

30'

Unai Bilbao

48'

G. Berterame

52'

E. Aguirre↳ H. Preciado

54'

J. Carrillo← D. Medina

54'

O. Campos← D. Andrade

61'

R. Sambueza← Z. Muñoz

62'

R. Juárez← Unai Bilbao

62'

B. Lozano

66'

J. Clemente← E. Orona

66'

A. Hernández← J. Murillo

74'

J. Díaz← F. Waller

79'

F. Torres← B. Lozano

89'

J. Ávila← E. Aguirre

89'

L. Suárez← H. Preciado

89'

J. Ávila

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoSantos

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots12

1Corners3

13Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots12

9On Target7

8Off Target3

3Blocked2

11Inside Box6

9Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

483Total Passes274

409Accurate Passes209

85%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides5