Atlético Pulpileño 2–1 UCAM Murcia II

Atlético Pulpileño

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UCAM Murcia II

9/1/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño42%

×Draw28%

UCAM Murcia II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PulpileñoExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Atlético Pulpileño

1.25

UCAM Murcia II

1.00

Atlético Pulpileño creates 25% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 110 away

1.37

creates per match

1.33

0.66

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño

1.37

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño

0.66

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw

70%

Atlético Pulpileño or UCAM Murcia II

72%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

58%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+

19%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals

71%

Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals

36%

Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals

13%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

63%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

26%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)

59%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more

42%

level

28%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

30%

Atlético Pulpileño at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Atlético Pulpileño 2–1 UCAM Murcia II

Atlético Pulpileño beat UCAM Murcia II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.

Atlético Pulpileño vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Atlético Pulpileño 2–1 UCAM Murcia II