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Atlético Pulpileño vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño43%
×Draw29%
Real Murcia II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.26
Real Murcia II
0.95

Atlético Pulpileño creates 33% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Real Murcia II
1.24

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Real Murcia II
1.15

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Real Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
72%
Atlético Pulpileño or Real Murcia II
71%
Draw or Real Murcia II
57%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
20%
Real Murcia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
13%
Real Murcia II 1+ goals
61%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
25%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
61%
Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
43%
level
29%
Real Murcia II scores more
28%

Atlético Pulpileño at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Pulpileño 1 – 1 Real Murcia II

Atlético Pulpileño and Real Murcia II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.