Atlético Pueblonuevo 1–1 Moralo: Result & Stats

Atlético Pueblonuevo

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Moralo

1/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 17Estadio Antonio Amaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo37%

×Draw27%

Moralo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PueblonuevoExpected goals in this matchMoralo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Atlético Pueblonuevo

1.27

Moralo

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 111 away

1.30

creates per match

1.39

1.11

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo

1.30

Moralo

1.39

allows per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo

1.11

Moralo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Moralo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pueblonuevo ↓

Moralo →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Pueblonuevo or draw

64%

Atlético Pueblonuevo or Moralo

73%

Draw or Moralo

63%

Winning margin

Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+

16%

Moralo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals

72%

Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals

36%

Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals

14%

Moralo 1+ goals

71%

Moralo 2+ goals

36%

Moralo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)

51%

Moralo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pueblonuevo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Moralo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 1.30 + Moralo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Moralo attack 1.39 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more

37%

level

27%

Moralo scores more

36%

Atlético Pueblonuevo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Pueblonuevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff