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Atlético Porcuna vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Atlético Porcuna
Atlético Porcuna
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Málaga II
Málaga II
9/26/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Estadio Municipal San Benito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Atlético Porcuna34%
×Draw27%
Málaga II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Porcuna
1.20
Málaga II
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 92 away

creates per match

Atlético Porcuna
1.29
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Atlético Porcuna
1.24
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Porcuna ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Porcuna or draw
61%
Atlético Porcuna or Málaga II
73%
Draw or Málaga II
66%

Winning margin

Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+
14%
Málaga II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals
12%
Málaga II 1+ goals
72%
Málaga II 2+ goals
37%
Málaga II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)
47%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Porcuna at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Porcuna attack 1.29 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Porcuna scores more
34%
level
27%
Málaga II scores more
39%

Málaga II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Porcuna vs Málaga II

Atlético Porcuna beat Málaga II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Benito in Porcuna.