Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Vasco DA Gama

Atletico Paranaense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

11/25/2023

Serie A · Round 35Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Atletico Paranaense51%

×Draw26%

Vasco DA Gama23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.92

Atletico Paranaense

1.53

Vasco DA Gama

0.92

Atletico Paranaense creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

1.66

creates per match

0.90

0.94

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

1.66

Vasco DA Gama

0.90

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.94

Vasco DA Gama

1.41

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Paranaense-0.12scores less

Vasco DA Gama+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

77%

Atletico Paranaense or Vasco DA Gama

74%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

49%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

27%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

45%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

20%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

60%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

23%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

69%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.94 · 13 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.66 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.90 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

51%

level

26%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

23%

Atletico Paranaense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff