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Atlético Pantoja vs Vega Real — Liga Mayor 2020

Atlético Pantoja
Atlético Pantoja
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vega Real
Vega Real
J. Baez 67'
F. Herard 55'
L. Espinal 45+2'
J. M. Jaquez 26'
8/20/2023Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Championship Round - 2Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Pantoja50%
×Draw26%
Vega Real24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pantoja
1.53
Vega Real
0.96

Atlético Pantoja creates 59% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 67 away

creates per match

Atlético Pantoja
1.64
Vega Real
0.99

allows per match

Atlético Pantoja
0.94
Vega Real
1.43

finishing

Atlético Pantoja+0.00on par
Vega Real+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pantoja ↓

Vega Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Pantoja or draw
76%
Atlético Pantoja or Vega Real
74%
Draw or Vega Real
50%

Winning margin

Atlético Pantoja wins by 2+
26%
Vega Real wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Pantoja 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Pantoja 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Pantoja 3+ goals
20%
Vega Real 1+ goals
62%
Vega Real 2+ goals
25%
Vega Real 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pantoja (draw refunded)
68%
Vega Real (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pantoja at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 80 matches

Vega Real away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pantoja attack 1.64 + Vega Real defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vega Real attack 0.99 + Atlético Pantoja defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlético Pantoja scores more
50%
level
26%
Vega Real scores more
24%

Atlético Pantoja at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Pantoja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
J. M. Jaquez
45+2'
L. Espinal
55'
F. Herard
67'
J. Baez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: Atlético Pantoja 3–1 Vega Real

Atlético Pantoja beat Vega Real 3-1 in Liga Mayor on August 20, 2023.

Goals: J. M. Jaquez (26'), L. Espinal (45+2'), F. Herard (55'), J. Baez (67').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez in Santo Domingo.