Atlético Nacional W 1–3 Independiente Medellín W

Atlético Nacional W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Independiente Medellín W

5/9/2022

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 17Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Atlético Nacional W54%

×Draw25%

Independiente Medellín W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Nacional WExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellín W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.91

Atlético Nacional W

1.61

Independiente Medellín W

0.91

Atlético Nacional W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

1.93

creates per match

1.11

0.70

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Atlético Nacional W

1.93

Independiente Medellín W

1.11

allows per match

Atlético Nacional W

0.70

Independiente Medellín W

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Nacional W ↓

Independiente Medellín W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Nacional W or draw

79%

Atlético Nacional W or Independiente Medellín W

75%

Draw or Independiente Medellín W

46%

Winning margin

Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+

29%

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals

80%

Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals

48%

Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals

22%

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals

60%

Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals

23%

Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)

72%

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Nacional W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.70 · 57 matches

Independiente Medellín W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.93 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.11 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Nacional W scores more

54%

level

25%

Independiente Medellín W scores more

21%

Atlético Nacional W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff