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Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
Preview
01:10
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
8/16/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 5Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Big match
59%
Atletico Nacional
model favours
59%25%17%

Santa Fe are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Atletico Nacional59%
×Draw25%
Santa Fe17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.61
Santa Fe
0.72

Atletico Nacional creates 124% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
2.01
Santa Fe
0.76

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.68
Santa Fe
1.22

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more
Santa Fe+0.57scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
83%
Atletico Nacional or Santa Fe
75%
Draw or Santa Fe
41%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
32%
Santa Fe wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
80%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
48%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
22%
Santa Fe 1+ goals
51%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
16%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
78%
Santa Fe (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Santa Fe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Santa Fe attack 0.76 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
59%
level
25%
Santa Fe scores more
17%

Atletico Nacional at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Santa Fe score first in only 25% of matches
  • Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches
  • Style contrast — Atletico Nacional play Possession-dominant, Santa Fe Defensively solid
  • Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Atletico Nacional
Possession-dominant
Santa Fe
Defensively solid
56%Possession52%
83%Pass accuracy77%
15.2Shots13.4
1.49xGBiggest gap1.14
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Atletico NacionalSanta Fe

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Atletico Nacional
4
Draws
1
Santa Fe
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
2–11–12–11–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Nacional
WLWWW
Fe
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Nacional face Santa Fe (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Atletico Nacional hosting Santa Fe. Match starts August 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atletico Nacional host Santa Fe at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.