Atletico Nacional 5–0 Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Santa Fe

J. Castro 89'

E. López 69' (OG)

A. Sarmiento 45+6', 26'

M. Hinestroza 32'

11/21/2024

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Atletico Nacional56%

×Draw25%

Santa Fe19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.79

Atletico Nacional

1.56

Santa Fe

0.79

Atletico Nacional creates 97% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.90

creates per match

0.86

0.73

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.90

Santa Fe

0.86

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.73

Santa Fe

1.22

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Santa Fe+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

81%

Atletico Nacional or Santa Fe

75%

Draw or Santa Fe

44%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

29%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

21%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

55%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

19%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

75%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 16 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.22 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.90 + Santa Fe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.56

Santa Fe attack 0.86 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

56%

level

25%

Santa Fe scores more

19%

Atletico Nacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

A. Sarmiento

Atletico Nacional · M

9.2

Match Events

5'

Marcelo OrtízCard upgrade

6'

Marcelo Ortíz

15'

William Tesillo

15'

Juan Felipe Aguirre

26'

A. Sarmiento↳ A. Román

30'

F. Aguero← J. Zuluaga

32'

M. Hinestroza↳ J. Campuzano

34'

42'

42'

43'

45+6'

46'

S. Cuero← D. Mosquera

55'

Andrés Román

58'

Santiago Cuero

63'

J. Arias← J. Campuzano

63'

D. Asprilla← A. Sarmiento

63'

E. Perlaza← J. Monroy

64'

Y. Velásquez← J. Torres

69'

E. LópezOwn goal

74'

J. Castro← Á. Angulo

74'

K. Parra← M. Hinestroza

77'

J. Duque← D. Torres

81'

K. Viveros← A. Morelos

85'

Yilmar Velázquez

89'

J. Castro↳ P. Ceppelini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoSanta

Overview

65%Possession35%

25Total Shots12

10Corners2

9Fouls8

Shots

25Total Shots12

11On Target5

6Off Target7

8Blocked0

11Inside Box8

14Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

530Total Passes279

476Accurate Passes218

90%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls8

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

3Offsides2

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 5–0 Santa Fe

Atletico Nacional beat Santa Fe 5-0 in Primera A on November 21, 2024.

Goals: A. Sarmiento (26', 45+6'), M. Hinestroza (32'), E. López (69' o.g.), J. Castro (89').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (65%) and registered 25 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 5–0 Santa Fe