Atletico Nacional 2–2 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Millonarios

Y. Guzmán 78'

J. Barrera 42'

D. Ruiz 74'

Y. Candelo 13' (OG)

6/1/2022

Primera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 2Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Atletico Nacional49%

×Draw26%

Millonarios25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.96

Atletico Nacional

1.46

Millonarios

0.96

Atletico Nacional creates 52% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

1.77

creates per match

1.16

0.77

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.77

Millonarios

1.16

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.77

Millonarios

1.16

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

75%

Atletico Nacional or Millonarios

74%

Draw or Millonarios

51%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

24%

Millonarios wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

18%

Millonarios 1+ goals

62%

Millonarios 2+ goals

25%

Millonarios 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

66%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Millonarios attack 1.16 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

49%

level

26%

Millonarios scores more

25%

Atletico Nacional at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Ruiz

Millonarios · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

J. BarreraGoal Disallowed - offside

7'

E. OliveraGoal Disallowed - Foul

13'

Y. CandeloOwn goal

31'

Y. Candelo

32'

D. Banguero← Á. Angulo

40'

E. Olivera

42'

J. Barrera↳ D. Mantilla

44'

A. Montero

46'

J. Valencia← D. Herazo

65'

R. Blanco← Jefferson Duque

74'

E. Sosa← C. Gómez

74'

D. Ruiz↳ D. Silva

75'

A. Andrade← J. Barrera

75'

Jhon Duque← A. Mejía

75'

Y. Guzmán← D. Mantilla

78'

82'

87'

87'

89'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoMillonarios

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots12

4Corners4

10Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target4

3Off Target7

5Blocked1

5Inside Box9

7Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

387Total Passes487

316Accurate Passes398

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls6

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2