Atletico Nacional 2–0 Junior: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 0

Junior

M. Hinestroza 53'

A. Román 26'

9/27/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 10Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Atletico Nacional54%

×Draw25%

Junior21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.91

Atletico Nacional

1.61

Junior

0.91

Atletico Nacional creates 77% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.90

creates per match

1.08

0.73

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.90

Junior

1.08

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.73

Junior

1.33

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Junior+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

79%

Atletico Nacional or Junior

75%

Draw or Junior

46%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

29%

Junior wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

48%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

22%

Junior 1+ goals

60%

Junior 2+ goals

23%

Junior 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

72%

Junior (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 16 matches

Junior away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.90 + Junior defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Junior attack 1.08 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

54%

level

25%

Junior scores more

21%

Atletico Nacional at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Hinestroza

Atletico Nacional · M

7.5

Match Events

26'

44'

45'

45+3'

46'

52'

53'

M. Hinestroza↳ E. Cardona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoJunior

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots5

1Corners1

10Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots5

4On Target2

3Off Target2

1Blocked1

3Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

238Total Passes200

192Accurate Passes151

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0