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Atletico Nacional vs Junior — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Junior
Junior
4/10/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Atletico Nacional54%
×Draw25%
Junior21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.61
Junior
0.91

Atletico Nacional creates 77% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.90
Junior
1.08

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.73
Junior
1.33

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more
Junior+0.28scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Junior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
79%
Atletico Nacional or Junior
75%
Draw or Junior
46%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
29%
Junior wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
80%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
48%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
22%
Junior 1+ goals
60%
Junior 2+ goals
23%
Junior 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
72%
Junior (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 16 matches

Junior away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.90 + Junior defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Junior attack 1.08 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
54%
level
25%
Junior scores more
21%

Atletico Nacional at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Junior

Junior beat Atletico Nacional 1-0 in Primera A on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.