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Atletico Nacional vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
9/14/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atletico Nacional62%
×Draw23%
Internacional de Bogota15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.78
Internacional de Bogota
0.75

Atletico Nacional creates 137% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
2.01
Internacional de Bogota
0.81

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.68
Internacional de Bogota
1.56

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more
Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
85%
Atletico Nacional or Internacional de Bogota
77%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
38%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
36%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
83%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
53%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
26%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
53%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
17%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
80%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
62%
level
23%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
15%

Atletico Nacional at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Internacional de Bogota

Atletico Nacional beat Internacional de Bogota 5-0 in Primera A on September 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.