Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

Atletico Nacional

Preview

21:05

Deportivo Pasto

10/11/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Big match

54%

Atletico Nacional

model favours

54%25%21%

Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

48%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Atletico Nacional54%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Pasto21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.91

Atletico Nacional

1.63

Deportivo Pasto

0.91

Atletico Nacional creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.01

creates per match

1.13

0.68

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

2.01

Deportivo Pasto

1.13

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.68

Deportivo Pasto

1.26

+1.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more

Deportivo Pasto+0.07on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

79%

Atletico Nacional or Deportivo Pasto

75%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

46%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

29%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

48%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

22%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

72%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.63

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.13 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

54%

level

25%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

21%

Atletico Nacional at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Atletico Nacional have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Atletico Nacional

Possession-dominant

Deportivo Pasto

Balanced

56%Possession46%

83%Pass accuracy78%

15.2ShotsBiggest gap11.2

1.49xG1.30

Atletico NacionalDeportivo Pasto

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

8

Atletico Nacional

2

Draws

0

Deportivo Pasto

Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 60%

2–12–23–02–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Nacional

WLWWW

Pasto

LLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff