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Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
3/24/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 172+ matches

Atletico Nacional56%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Pasto19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.58
Deportivo Pasto
0.81

Atletico Nacional creates 95% more chances

Season form · 193 home / 172 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.83
Deportivo Pasto
0.79

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.83
Deportivo Pasto
1.32

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportivo Pasto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
81%
Atletico Nacional or Deportivo Pasto
75%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto
44%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
30%
Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
79%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
47%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
21%
Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
19%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
74%
Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 193 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.83 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.79 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
56%
level
25%
Deportivo Pasto scores more
19%

Atletico Nacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportivo Pasto

Atletico Nacional beat Deportivo Pasto 1-0 in Primera A on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.