Atletico Nacional 3–2 Deportivo Pasto

Atletico Nacional

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Pasto

J. Barrera 90+2'

Jefferson Duque 79'

T. Ángel 20'

D. Moreno 66'

D. López 26'

6/18/2023

Primera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 6Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Atletico Nacional49%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Pasto25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.98

Atletico Nacional

1.50

Deportivo Pasto

0.98

Atletico Nacional creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.90

creates per match

1.24

0.73

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.90

Deportivo Pasto

1.24

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.73

Deportivo Pasto

1.09

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Deportivo Pasto+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

75%

Atletico Nacional or Deportivo Pasto

74%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

51%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

44%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

19%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

67%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 16 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.90 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.50

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.24 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

49%

level

26%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

25%

Atletico Nacional at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Y. Candelo

Atletico Nacional · D

8.2

Match Events

20'

T. Ángel↳ Y. Candelo

26'

D. López

34'

Juan Mateo Garavito Pelaez

39'

Juan Felipe AguirreGoal confirmed

45+2'

Edwar LópezGoal cancelled

61'

D. Pino← D. López

61'

C. Tovar← J. Figueroa

66'

D. Moreno↳ E. López

68'

Johan Caicedo

74'

B. Palacios← N. Palacio

74'

J. Barrera← T. Ángel

79'

D. Riascos← J. Caicedo

79'

Jefferson Duque↳ Y. Candelo

86'

J. Campaña← A. Estacio

87'

Y. Rosales← M. Garavito

90+7'

Harlen Castillo

90+7'

Edwar López

90+4'

S. Mosquera← D. Pabón

90+4'

J. Solis← N. Deossa

90+2'

J. Barrera↳ D. Pabón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoDeportivo

Overview

62%Possession38%

25Total Shots14

9Corners2

10Fouls8

Shots

25Total Shots14

9On Target4

7Off Target4

9Blocked6

10Inside Box5

15Outside Box9

Passing

62%Possession38%

423Total Passes271

353Accurate Passes212

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 3–2 Deportivo Pasto

Atletico Nacional beat Deportivo Pasto 3-2 in Primera A on June 18, 2023.

Goals: T. Ángel (20'), D. López (26'), D. Moreno (66'), Jefferson Duque (79'), J. Barrera (90+2').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (62%) and registered 25 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 3–2 Deportivo Pasto