Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima

Atletico Nacional

Preview

01:20

Deportes Tolima

10/8/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Big match

58%

Atletico Nacional

model favours

58%25%17%

Deportes Tolima score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

60%

under 2.5 goals

40%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Atletico Nacional58%

×Draw25%

Deportes Tolima17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.71

Atletico Nacional

1.58

Deportes Tolima

0.71

Atletico Nacional creates 123% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.01

creates per match

0.73

0.68

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

2.01

Deportes Tolima

0.73

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.68

Deportes Tolima

1.15

+1.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more

Deportes Tolima-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

83%

Atletico Nacional or Deportes Tolima

75%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

42%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

31%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

47%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

21%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

51%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

16%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

78%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.15 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.58

Deportes Tolima attack 0.73 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

58%

level

25%

Deportes Tolima scores more

17%

Atletico Nacional at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 18% of Deportes Tolima’s matches
77% of Deportes Tolima’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches
Style contrast — Atletico Nacional play Possession-dominant, Deportes Tolima Defensively solid
Deportes Tolima outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)
Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Atletico Nacional

Possession-dominant

Deportes Tolima

Defensively solid

56%Possession54%

83%Pass accuracy82%

15.2Shots12.7

1.49xGBiggest gap1.07

Atletico NacionalDeportes Tolima

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Atletico Nacional

2

Draws

3

Deportes Tolima

Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%

3–11–00–10–04–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Nacional

WLWWW

Tolima

DLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff