Atletico Nacional 2–3 Deportes Tolima

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Deportes Tolima

11/9/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 20Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 193+ matches

Atletico Nacional46%

×Draw27%

Deportes Tolima27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.02

Atletico Nacional

1.42

Deportes Tolima

1.02

Atletico Nacional creates 39% more chances

Season form · 193 home / 196 away

1.83

creates per match

1.22

0.83

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.83

Deportes Tolima

1.22

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.83

Deportes Tolima

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

73%

Atletico Nacional or Deportes Tolima

73%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

54%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

22%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

76%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

41%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

17%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

64%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

27%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

63%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 193 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.83 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

46%

level

27%

Deportes Tolima scores more

27%

Atletico Nacional at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff