Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportes Tolima

Atletico Nacional

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportes Tolima

D. Muñoz 31'

9/30/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Atletico Nacional48%

×Draw27%

Deportes Tolima25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.91

Atletico Nacional

1.38

Deportes Tolima

0.91

Atletico Nacional creates 52% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.77

creates per match

1.05

0.77

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.77

Deportes Tolima

1.05

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.77

Deportes Tolima

0.98

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Deportes Tolima-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

75%

Atletico Nacional or Deportes Tolima

73%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

52%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

23%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

40%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

16%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

60%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

23%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

66%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.98 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.38

Deportes Tolima attack 1.05 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

48%

level

27%

Deportes Tolima scores more

25%

Atletico Nacional at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Barrera

Atletico Nacional · M

8.3

Match Events

27'

Juan Guillermo Arboleda

31'

D. Muñoz↳ Helibelton Palacios

34'

34'

46'

53'

58'

64'

Juan Guillermo Arboleda

64'

Juan Guillermo Arboleda

66'

S. Mosquera← J. Nieto

67'

Daniel Muñoz

69'

B. Rovira← V. Hernández

75'

A. Reyes← D. Muñoz

82'

P. Ceppelini← H. Barcos

86'

J. Hernández← A. Plata

90'

Jarlan Barrera

90'

Julián Quiñones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoDeportes

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots6

6Corners3

18Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots6

5On Target0

10Off Target3

2Blocked3

9Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

473Total Passes270

401Accurate Passes192

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls14

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3