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Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima — Copa Colombia 2026

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolimaadvanced
J. Ramos 59'
8/29/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Quarter-finalsEstadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Atletico Nacional51%
×Draw27%
Deportes Tolima21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.42
Deportes Tolima
0.81

Atletico Nacional creates 75% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
2.14
Deportes Tolima
1.15

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.48
Deportes Tolima
0.69

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
79%
Atletico Nacional or Deportes Tolima
73%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
49%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
25%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
76%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
41%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
17%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
56%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
19%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
71%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.14 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportes Tolima attack 1.15 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
51%
level
27%
Deportes Tolima scores more
21%

Atletico Nacional at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
59'
J. Ramos
66'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Atletico Nacional 0–1 Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Atletico Nacional 1-0 in Copa Colombia on August 29, 2019.

Goals: J. Ramos (59').

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín).