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Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
Pens
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
6/10/2018Primera APrimera A · Apertura - FinalsEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Atletico Nacional46%
×Draw27%
Deportes Tolima27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.39
Deportes Tolima
0.98

Atletico Nacional creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.77
Deportes Tolima
1.20

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.77
Deportes Tolima
1.00

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more
Deportes Tolima-0.14scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
73%
Atletico Nacional or Deportes Tolima
73%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
54%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
22%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
40%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
16%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
62%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
26%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
64%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Deportes Tolima attack 1.20 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
46%
level
27%
Deportes Tolima scores more
27%

Atletico Nacional at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Atletico Nacional 2-1 in Primera A on June 10, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.