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Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas — Copa Colombia 2019

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacionaladvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
10/5/2023Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Quarter-finalsEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Atletico Nacional63%
×Draw22%
Águilas Doradas15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.89
Águilas Doradas
0.79

Atletico Nacional creates 139% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
2.14
Águilas Doradas
1.09

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.48
Águilas Doradas
1.64

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
85%
Atletico Nacional or Águilas Doradas
78%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
37%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
38%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
85%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
56%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
29%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
55%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
19%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
81%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.14 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.89

Águilas Doradas attack 1.09 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
63%
level
22%
Águilas Doradas scores more
15%

Atletico Nacional at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas

Atletico Nacional beat Águilas Doradas 2-1 in Copa Colombia on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.