Atletico Nacional 0–0 Águilas Doradas

Atletico Nacional

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Águilas Doradas

1/29/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 2Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

Atletico Nacional53%

×Draw25%

Águilas Doradas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchÁguilas Doradas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.90

Atletico Nacional

1.56

Águilas Doradas

0.90

Atletico Nacional creates 73% more chances

Season form · 193 home / 170 away

1.83

creates per match

0.97

0.83

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.83

Águilas Doradas

0.97

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.83

Águilas Doradas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Águilas Doradas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

78%

Atletico Nacional or Águilas Doradas

75%

Draw or Águilas Doradas

47%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

28%

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

21%

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

59%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

23%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

71%

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 193 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.83 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

53%

level

25%

Águilas Doradas scores more

22%

Atletico Nacional at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff