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Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Fluminense U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
Preview
18:00
Fluminense U17
Fluminense U17
8/2/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 10
48%
Atlético Mineiro U17
model favours
48%22%31%

Atlético Mineiro U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1748%
×Draw22%
Fluminense U1731%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U17
1.99
Fluminense U17
1.56

Atlético Mineiro U17 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.47
Fluminense U17
1.50

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
1.63
Fluminense U17
1.50

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par
Fluminense U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Fluminense U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw
69%
Atlético Mineiro U17 or Fluminense U17
78%
Draw or Fluminense U17
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
27%
Fluminense U17 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
59%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
32%
Fluminense U17 1+ goals
79%
Fluminense U17 2+ goals
46%
Fluminense U17 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
61%
Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Fluminense U17 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.47 + Fluminense U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.99

Fluminense U17 attack 1.50 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
48%
level
22%
Fluminense U17 scores more
31%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 100% of Atlético Mineiro U17’s matches
  • Fluminense U17 score first in only 14% of matches
  • Fluminense U17 have scored in 10 games running
  • 75% of Atlético Mineiro U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (75% and 64% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DLDLL
U17
WWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlético Mineiro U17 host Fluminense U17

August 2, 2026: Atlético Mineiro U17 take on Fluminense U17 in Brasileiro U17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.