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Atlético Marte vs Once Municipal — Primera Division 2019

Atlético Marte
Atlético Marte
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Once Municipal
Once Municipal
11/21/2021Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 1st Phase - 21Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Atlético Marte38%
×Draw26%
Once Municipal36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Marte
1.32
Once Municipal
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 122 away

creates per match

Atlético Marte
1.18
Once Municipal
1.02

allows per match

Atlético Marte
1.56
Once Municipal
1.47

finishing

Atlético Marte+0.00on par
Once Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Marte ↓

Once Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Marte or draw
64%
Atlético Marte or Once Municipal
74%
Draw or Once Municipal
62%

Winning margin

Atlético Marte wins by 2+
17%
Once Municipal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atlético Marte 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Marte 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Marte 3+ goals
15%
Once Municipal 1+ goals
72%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
37%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Marte (draw refunded)
51%
Once Municipal (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Marte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

Once Municipal away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Marte attack 1.18 + Once Municipal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Once Municipal attack 1.02 + Atlético Marte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Marte scores more
38%
level
26%
Once Municipal scores more
36%

Atlético Marte at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Marte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Marte vs Once Municipal

Once Municipal beat Atlético Marte 4-1 in Primera Division on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Cuscatlán in San Salvador.