Atlético Marte 2–0 Isidro Metapán: Result & Stats

Atlético Marte

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Isidro Metapán

10/2/2021

Primera Division · Apertura - 1st Phase - 12Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Atlético Marte34%

×Draw27%

Isidro Metapán39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MarteExpected goals in this matchIsidro Metapán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.31

Atlético Marte

1.21

Isidro Metapán

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 147 away

1.18

creates per match

1.07

1.56

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Atlético Marte

1.18

Isidro Metapán

1.07

allows per match

Atlético Marte

1.56

Isidro Metapán

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Marte+0.00on par

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Marte ↓

Isidro Metapán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Marte or draw

61%

Atlético Marte or Isidro Metapán

73%

Draw or Isidro Metapán

66%

Winning margin

Atlético Marte wins by 2+

14%

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atlético Marte 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Marte 2+ goals

34%

Atlético Marte 3+ goals

12%

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

73%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

38%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Marte (draw refunded)

47%

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Marte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

Isidro Metapán away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Marte attack 1.18 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Isidro Metapán attack 1.07 + Atlético Marte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Marte scores more

34%

level

27%

Isidro Metapán scores more

39%

Isidro Metapán at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Isidro Metapán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff