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Atlético Marte vs Alianza — Primera Division 2019

Atlético Marte
Atlético Marte
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Alianza
Alianza
4/8/2021Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Atlético Marte26%
×Draw26%
Alianza48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Marte
1.06
Alianza
1.54

Alianza creates 45% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 154 away

creates per match

Atlético Marte
1.18
Alianza
1.53

allows per match

Atlético Marte
1.56
Alianza
0.95

finishing

Atlético Marte+0.00on par
Alianza+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Marte ↓

Alianza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Marte or draw
52%
Atlético Marte or Alianza
74%
Draw or Alianza
74%

Winning margin

Atlético Marte wins by 2+
10%
Alianza wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Atlético Marte 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Marte 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Marte 3+ goals
9%
Alianza 1+ goals
79%
Alianza 2+ goals
45%
Alianza 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Atlético Marte (draw refunded)
35%
Alianza (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Marte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

Alianza away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Marte attack 1.18 + Alianza defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Alianza attack 1.53 + Atlético Marte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Marte scores more
26%
level
26%
Alianza scores more
48%

Alianza at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Atlético Marte 2–4 Alianza

Alianza beat Atlético Marte 4-2 in Primera Division on April 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Cuscatlán in San Salvador.