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Atlético Marte vs Águila — Primera Division 2019

Atlético Marte
Atlético Marte
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Águila
Águila
1/9/2021Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Atlético Marte29%
×Draw28%
Águila43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Marte
1.04
Águila
1.33

Águila creates 28% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 153 away

creates per match

Atlético Marte
1.18
Águila
1.11

allows per match

Atlético Marte
1.56
Águila
0.91

finishing

Atlético Marte+0.00on par
Águila+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Marte ↓

Águila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Marte or draw
57%
Atlético Marte or Águila
72%
Draw or Águila
71%

Winning margin

Atlético Marte wins by 2+
11%
Águila wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atlético Marte 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Marte 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Marte 3+ goals
9%
Águila 1+ goals
74%
Águila 2+ goals
38%
Águila 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atlético Marte (draw refunded)
40%
Águila (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Marte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

Águila away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Marte attack 1.18 + Águila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Águila attack 1.11 + Atlético Marte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Marte scores more
29%
level
28%
Águila scores more
43%

Águila at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Águila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Marte vs Águila

Águila beat Atlético Marte 3-0 in Primera Division on January 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Cuscatlán in San Salvador.