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Atletico Madrid W vs Sevilla W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
Preview
15:00
Sevilla W
Sevilla W
5/2/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 27
Big match
64%
Atletico Madrid W
model favours
64%20%16%

Atletico Madrid W win just 46% against the top half (vs 73% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Atletico Madrid W64%
×Draw20%
Sevilla W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Madrid W
2.06
Sevilla W
0.92

Atletico Madrid W creates 124% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 118 away

creates per match

Atletico Madrid W
2.26
Sevilla W
1.01

allows per match

Atletico Madrid W
0.82
Sevilla W
1.86

finishing

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par
Sevilla W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid W ↓

Sevilla W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid W or draw
84%
Atletico Madrid W or Sevilla W
80%
Draw or Sevilla W
36%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
39%
Sevilla W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
87%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
61%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
34%
Sevilla W 1+ goals
60%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
23%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
80%
Sevilla W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid W at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.82 · 120 matches

Sevilla W away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.26 + Sevilla W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sevilla W attack 1.01 + Atletico Madrid W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Atletico Madrid W scores more
64%
level
20%
Sevilla W scores more
16%

Atletico Madrid W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sevilla W win just 16% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Atletico Madrid W
Possession-dominant
Sevilla W
Balanced
58%Possession47%
82%Pass accuracy73%
12.8ShotsBiggest gap8.9
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Atletico Madrid WSevilla W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Atletico Madrid W
4
Draws
1
Sevilla W
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 70%
1–22–21–02–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LDLWW
W
DDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Madrid W face Sevilla W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Atletico Madrid W hosting Sevilla W. Match starts May 2, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.