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Atletico Madrid W vs Eibar W — Primera División Femenina 2021

Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
Preview
15:00
Eibar W
Eibar W
4/11/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 26
Big match
63%
Atletico Madrid W
model favours
63%22%15%

Eibar W win just 10% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Atletico Madrid W63%
×Draw22%
Eibar W15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Madrid W
1.91
Eibar W
0.80

Atletico Madrid W creates 139% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

creates per match

Atletico Madrid W
2.09
Eibar W
0.73

allows per match

Atletico Madrid W
0.88
Eibar W
1.73

finishing

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par
Eibar W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid W ↓

Eibar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid W or draw
85%
Atletico Madrid W or Eibar W
78%
Draw or Eibar W
37%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
38%
Eibar W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
85%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
57%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
30%
Eibar W 1+ goals
55%
Eibar W 2+ goals
19%
Eibar W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
81%
Eibar W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid W at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.88 · 76 matches

Eibar W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.73 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.09 + Eibar W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.91

Eibar W attack 0.73 + Atletico Madrid W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atletico Madrid W scores more
63%
level
22%
Eibar W scores more
15%

Atletico Madrid W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LDLWW
W
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Madrid W vs Eibar W — Match Preview

Atletico Madrid W face Eibar W on April 11, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.