Atletico Madrid W 6–0 Edf Logrono W: Result & Stats

Atletico Madrid W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Edf Logrono W

9/16/2018

Primera División Femenina · Round 2Miniestadio Cerro del Espino (Majadahonda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atletico Madrid W67%

×Draw19%

Edf Logrono W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico Madrid WExpected goals in this matchEdf Logrono W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.86

Atletico Madrid W

2.14

Edf Logrono W

0.86

Atletico Madrid W creates 149% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 57 away

2.26

creates per match

0.91

0.82

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Atletico Madrid W

2.26

Edf Logrono W

0.91

allows per match

Atletico Madrid W

0.82

Edf Logrono W

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid W ↓

Edf Logrono W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid W or draw

86%

Atletico Madrid W or Edf Logrono W

81%

Draw or Edf Logrono W

33%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

42%

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

88%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

63%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

36%

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals

58%

Edf Logrono W 2+ goals

21%

Edf Logrono W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

83%

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid W at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.82 · 120 matches

Edf Logrono W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.26 + Edf Logrono W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.14

Edf Logrono W attack 0.91 + Atletico Madrid W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atletico Madrid W scores more

67%

level

19%

Edf Logrono W scores more

14%

Atletico Madrid W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff