Atletico Madrid W vs Athletic Club W

Atletico Madrid W

Preview

15:00

Athletic Club W

5/19/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 29

Big match

56%

Atletico Madrid W

model favours

56%23%21%

Atletico Madrid W have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Atletico Madrid W56%

×Draw23%

Athletic Club W21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico Madrid WExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.03

Atletico Madrid W

1.83

Athletic Club W

1.03

Atletico Madrid W creates 78% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

2.05

creates per match

1.17

0.89

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Atletico Madrid W

2.05

Athletic Club W

1.17

allows per match

Atletico Madrid W

0.89

Athletic Club W

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid W ↓

Athletic Club W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid W or draw

79%

Atletico Madrid W or Athletic Club W

77%

Draw or Athletic Club W

44%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

32%

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

84%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

54%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

28%

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

64%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

28%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

73%

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid W at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 92 matches

Athletic Club W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.05 + Athletic Club W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.83

Athletic Club W attack 1.17 + Atletico Madrid W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atletico Madrid W scores more

56%

level

23%

Athletic Club W scores more

21%

Atletico Madrid W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Atletico Madrid W win just 37% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)
Athletic Club W win just 26% against the top half (vs 61% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

LDLWW

W

WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff