Atletico Madrid 3–1 Elche: Result & Stats | La Liga

Atletico Madrid

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Elche

Diego Costa 80' (pen)

L. Suárez 58', 41'

L. Boyé 64'

12/19/2020

La Liga · Round 14Estadio Wanda Metropolitano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Atletico Madrid63%

×Draw22%

Elche15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico MadridExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.79

Atletico Madrid

1.88

Elche

0.79

Atletico Madrid creates 138% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 27 away

2.01

creates per match

0.71

0.88

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Atletico Madrid

2.01

Elche

0.71

allows per match

Atletico Madrid

0.88

Elche

1.75

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Madrid+0.22scores more

Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid or draw

85%

Atletico Madrid or Elche

78%

Draw or Elche

37%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

38%

Elche wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

85%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

56%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

29%

Elche 1+ goals

55%

Elche 2+ goals

19%

Elche 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

81%

Elche (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid attack 2.01 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Elche attack 0.71 + Atletico Madrid defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atletico Madrid scores more

63%

level

22%

Elche scores more

15%

Atletico Madrid at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Suárez

Atletico Madrid · F

8.3

Match Events

5'

Luis SuárezGoal cancelled

14'

Gonzalo Verdú

40'

Mario Hermoso

41'

L. Suárez↳ K. Trippier

46'

J. Sánchez← John Donald

46'

E. Rigoni← Josan Ferrández

58'

L. Suárez↳ Y. Carrasco

64'

L. Boyé↳ Tete Morente

66'

Saúl← Y. Carrasco

66'

Á. Correa← T. Lemar

73'

Diego Costa← João Félix

74'

G. Kondogbia← L. Suárez

79'

Iván Marcone

80'

Diego CostaPenalty

81'

Nino← Raúl Guti

87'

Felipe← Koke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoElche

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots8

2Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots8

6On Target3

6Off Target4

0Blocked1

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

503Total Passes531

444Accurate Passes486

88%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2