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Atlético Madrid II vs Hércules — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
Preview
16:00
Hércules
Hércules
1/31/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22
52%
Atlético Madrid II
model favours
52%25%23%

Hércules raise their game against the top half — 37% wins vs the upper half, only 34% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atlético Madrid II52%
×Draw25%
Hércules23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
1.56
Hércules
0.93

Atlético Madrid II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
1.60
Hércules
0.95

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.91
Hércules
1.53

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Hércules+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Hércules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
77%
Atlético Madrid II or Hércules
75%
Draw or Hércules
48%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
27%
Hércules wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
21%
Hércules 1+ goals
61%
Hércules 2+ goals
24%
Hércules 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
70%
Hércules (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Hércules away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Hércules defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hércules attack 0.95 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
52%
level
25%
Hércules scores more
23%

Atlético Madrid II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LDWLW
Hércules
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlético Madrid II host Hércules

January 31, 2027: Atlético Madrid II take on Hércules in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.