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Atlético Madrid II vs FC Cartagena — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
Preview
15:00
FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
4/25/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34
52%
Atlético Madrid II
model favours
52%28%20%
1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Madrid II52%
×Draw28%
FC Cartagena20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
1.38
FC Cartagena
0.74

Atlético Madrid II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
1.60
FC Cartagena
0.58

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.91
FC Cartagena
1.16

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

FC Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
80%
Atlético Madrid II or FC Cartagena
72%
Draw or FC Cartagena
48%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
26%
FC Cartagena wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
16%
FC Cartagena 1+ goals
52%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
17%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
72%
FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Cartagena attack 0.58 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
52%
level
28%
FC Cartagena scores more
20%

Atlético Madrid II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LDWLW
Cartagena
DLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlético Madrid II host FC Cartagena

April 25, 2027: Atlético Madrid II take on FC Cartagena in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.