Atlético La Cruz vs Nueva Esparta — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
Atlético La Cruz54%
Nueva Esparta18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atlético La Cruz creates 106% more chances
Season form · 52 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atlético La Cruz ↓
Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atlético La Cruz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches
Nueva Esparta away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atlético La Cruz attack 1.31 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36
Nueva Esparta attack 0.58 + Atlético La Cruz defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.66
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Atlético La Cruz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Atlético La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
CA Furrial
Gran Valencia
Libertador FC
Petare FC
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuyanos FC
Atletico el Vigia FC
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Real Frontera
Titanes FC
ULA FC
Urena SC
Angostura FC
Diamantes de Guayana
Ciudad Vinotinto
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
Fundacion AIFI
Petrolero de Anzoategui
UCVYaracuy FCGran ValenciaYaracuyanos FCPetare FCCA FurrialLibertador FCTitanes FCReal FronteraCD Hermanos ColmenarezUrena SCDeportivo JBL del ZuliaAtletico el Vigia FCULA FCAngostura FCUCVFundacion AIFIPetrolero de AnzoateguiDinamo de Puerto La CruzDiamantes de GuayanaCiudad VinotintoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Atlético La Cruz host Nueva Esparta on Thursday, 25 May 2023 at 19:30. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Segunda División: Atlético La Cruz 2–0 Nueva Esparta
Atlético La Cruz beat Nueva Esparta 2-0 in Segunda División on May 25, 2023.
The match was played at Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini in Maturín.